Beijing and Washington are showing indifference, but not because they are indifferent

What each side thinks the other side is thinking

For those of you rooting for a quick thaw of the Sino-U.S. relationship after Biden’s inauguration, the last few weeks may have been a disappointment.

Both sides have made a number of remarks to each other, but no real ground-breaking momentum seems to be building.

The series of exchanges came after Biden addressed the U.S. State Department, in which he referred to China as “the most serious competitor”, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin on Friday commented on Biden’s remarks.

Here’s what Wang said:

中美作为两个大国，在维护世界和平稳定、促进全球发展繁荣方面拥有广泛共同利益，肩负特殊重要责任。与其他任何国家间关系一样，中美之间难免存在分歧，但两国共同利益远大于分歧。中美合作可以办成很多有利于两国和世界的大事。在新冠肺炎疫情、气候变化等全球性挑战面前，中美能够合作、必须合作的领域不是减少了，而是更多更广了。

中方致力于同美方发展不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的关系，同时将继续坚定维护国家主权安全发展利益。希望美方顺应两国民意和时代潮流，客观理性看待中国和中美关系，采取积极、建设性的对华政策，同中方相向而行，聚焦合作，管控分歧，推动中美关系健康稳定向前发展，同各国和国际社会携手推进世界和平与发展的崇高事业。

As two major countries, China and the United States share broad common interests and special, major responsibilities in safeguarding world peace, stability and prosperity. It is natural that there are differences between China and the United States, just like what happens between any other countries. However, the common interests of China and the United States far outweigh our differences. Our cooperation can lead to major achievements that benefit the two countries and the world. Faced with global challenges like COVID-19 and climate change, the areas where China and the United States can and must cooperate get only greater and wider.

China is committed to developing bilateral relations with the United States featuring non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation. In the meantime, we will continue firmly upholding national sovereignty, security and development interests. We hope the United States can ride with the public opinions in China and the United States as well as the trend of the times, view China and its relations with China in an unbiased and rational manner, take a positive and constructive China policy, meet China half-way, focus on cooperation and manage differences, promote the sound and stable development of China-U.S. ties, and work with the international community to advance the noble cause of world peace and development.

Again, Beijing’s message is clear, Beijing supports cooperation with the United States on topics such as Covid or climate change, and believes that cooperation is good for everyone. China also hopes that the United States would do a list of things so that both countries are better positioned to cooperate.

For those of you that have not been paying close attention to comments from Beijing, Wang’s words were but a reiteration of what his seniors, including Yang Jiechi and Le Yucheng, said on recent occasions.

It’s almost as if Beijing was not really paying attention to what Biden was saying at Foggy Bottom and just simply borrowed some quotes from previous speeches to satisfy journalists.

Your host believes that there might be three factors behind Beijing’s seemingly indifference to Biden’s speech. 

First, this might suggest that Beijing has reached the conclusion that Washington has had its China policy sketched out and ready to execute, and that it had better demonstrate “strategic composure” (政治定力) in regard to the United States, and “watch Washington’s walk” in addition to “listen to Washington’s talk” （听其言 观其行）before making any further moves.

It is quite clear that Beijing and Washington are either not on the same channel, or they are - but talking across each other.

Beijing apparently believes the Biden administration's China policy has been heavily shaped by Trump's, if not inherited some parts outright.

Hu Xijin, which this newspaper had some fun with in the last issue, said

特朗普的民粹主义执政已给建制派的对华思维也打上了深刻烙印。 “特朗普主义”将阴魂不散。

Trump's populist governance has left a deep mark on the U.S. establishment's thinking on China as well. Trumpism will hang on like a ghost.

Now your host has no idea what links does the 民粹主义执政 "populist governance" Hu talked about have with Biden's China policy, but perhaps Hu was in fact referring to a bipartisan consensus in Washington on China, and it's apparent not only Hu but the entire Beijing are aware of the bipartisan consensus.

It's very likely that the Biden administration and supporters will say the current U.S. thinking on China, while indeed shares some similarities with Trump's aggression, is not part of Trump's "legacy," but a reflection of, in particular, Beijing's "wrong-doing" over the years.

The problem is that both sides feel that the unwritten/inexplicit demand from the other side to each other to look in the mirror is unfair and perhaps politically infeasible. Beijing believes it's Washington that has changed and what Beijing has done over the years, especially since 2017, is merely self-defense. And Washington's bipartisan consensus is: come on, it's you - Beijing - which has changed course dramatically, the ball is in your court, and you don't get play innocent.

Washington is also apparently thinking that U.S diplomacy can NOT be compartmentalized as part of, or in light of, its perception of China's overall relations with the Western world, for example on Australia, Britain, Canada, etc.; nor that U.S. diplomacy could be compartmentalized as part of, or in light of, what Beijing strictly views as its internal affairs, aka on Xinjiang, Hong Kong, social stability.
Beijing, however, stands firm that its policies on those fronts, especially with specific countries that it viewed as severely erred in provoking China, have all been defensive in nature and any de facto tit-for-tat retaliation were, in themselves, totally justified respectively.

Another reason Beijing is refraining from responding too actively to any messages from Washington, especially those that carry an aggressive undertone, is perhaps Beijing understands that any messages that are delivered early in an administration may be targeted more at the domestic audience than at Beijing.

As Yang clearly stated, Beijing believes Trump has set the path of the bilateral relationship on a ruinous path and understands that the current atmosphere inside the beltway isn’t helpful to any constructive cooperation between the two countries. Therefore, Beijing isn’t pinning on the hope of a policy U-turn on the part of the Biden administration merely weeks after Trump left office.

Brooking’s Ryan Hass advised both China and the United States to take stock of their respective challenges and future plans before addressing each other. For a bilateral relationship as consequential as the one between Beijing and Washington, especially against the backdrop of damaged mutual trust, caution trumps rashness.

Just as your host is finishing up this newsletter, news of Blinken’s call with Yang came. Beijing’s readout here.

杨洁篪表示，台湾问题是中美关系中最重要最敏感的核心问题，事关中国主权和领土完整。美方应当严格恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报。涉港、涉疆、涉藏等事务均为中国内政，不容任何外部势力干涉。任何污蔑抹黑中国的图谋都不可能得逞，中方将继续坚定维护国家主权、安全和发展利益。

Yang Jiechi said that the Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive core issue in Sino-U.S. relations and concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. side should strictly abide by the one-China principle and the three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués. Matters related to Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet are China's internal affairs and cannot be interfered with by any external forces. Any attempt to smear China will not succeed, and China will continue to firmly safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests.

The Chinese readout also added

布林肯表示，美中关系对两国和世界都非常重要。美方愿同中方发展稳定、建设性的双边关系。

双方同意就双边关系和共同关心的国际地区问题保持联系和沟通。

Blinken said the U.S-Sino relationship is important for both the two countries and the world. The United States is willing to develop a stable and constructive bilateral relationship.

Both sides agreed to stay in touch on global issues of mutual interest.

Your host will just hastily add a few lines.

The call must have not gone well, as the U.S. readout did not even include one word as to what Yang said, and Blinken made sure to touch on all the sore points in the Sino-U.S. relationship.

However, the Chinese readout was significantly less aggressive in tone, which to your host, can also be explained by China’s approach of “strategic composure‘ as explained above.

Notable from Biden administration's statements, including in the latest State Department's readout of Blinken's phone call with Yang, is the absence of "CCP." For example, Mike Pompeo referred to Yang as "CCP Politburo Member" on Twitter. But in the case of Blinken's phone call, Yang is addressed as PRC Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs.

This newsletter is penned by Yang Liu, founder of Beijing Channel, and Zichen Wang, of Pekingnology.