China-S. Korea relationship: a new chapter
Experts warn of turbulent waters ahead
About a month ago, Yoon Suk-yeol was elected as the next president of South Korea. Yoon, a right-wing politician, is expected to pursue a different set of foreign policies that will likely bring about great ramifications for the geopolitics of East Asia.
After Yoon’s election, WeChat account World Seen From Overseas, run by American University Professor Zhao Quansheng, invited more than a dozen experts in China, Korea, and the United States to offer their outlook on Seoul’s foreign policy during Yoon’s tenure, especially its interaction with China.
This newsletter will include some of the main points of 11 of those experts.
Main Takeaways:
Experts are in general concerned over a possible worsening of the relationship between Beijing and Seoul
Quad, THAAD, Taiwan mentioned as possible sources of tension
Mutual antagonism (Your host wrote about this in a 2021 newsletter)between the Chinese and Korean people needs to be addressed
Beijing and Seoul need to be watchful of the spillover effect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
The balance that Seoul strikes between Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and Pyongyang will be a crucial factor in molding the geopolitical dynamic in NE Asia
Hwang Jae-ho, Professor of the Division of International Studies at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
第一，由于是选举时期，尹当选人对中国持批评态度。然而，这并不意味着自然的反中。很可能是“非中”的可能行大一些。即对中国的反感大于好感。
First, during the election cycle, Yoon had been critical of China. However, this does not mean that he is naturally anti-China. It is likely that he is more likely to be "not-China". In other words, he habors more negative sentiment for China compared with positive.
第二，虽然当选人在总统选举的进程中提到了萨德的部署，这并不一定意味着部署萨德。但是，在韩美同盟的背景下，在美国得到很多呼应，经常会出现与中国利益背道而驰的情况。 例如，韩国的四方会议（Quad）参与的项目和范围会增加。
Second, although Yoon mentioned the deployment of THAAD during the presidential election process, this does not necessarily mean that THAAD will be deployed. However, in the context of the Korea-U.S. alliance, which is echoed a lot in the United States, there will often arise situations that runs counter to China's interests. For example, the items and scope of South Korea's involvement with the Quad will increase.
第三，尹当选人通过原则外交来建立韩国与中国之间的新互利关系。需要着重注意的是“原则”和“互惠”，未来中国需要注意不要对韩国表现出独断的一面。否则，新政府可以在政策上充分反映民众的反华情绪。
Third, Mr. Yoon will build a new mutually beneficial relationship between Korea and China through principle-based diplomacy. It is important to focus on "principles" and "reciprocity", and China needs to be careful not to act arbitrarily toward South Korea in the future. Otherwise, the new government may employ policies that fully reflects the public's anti-China sentiment.
Zheng Jiyong, Fudan University
综上所述，尹锡悦团队提出的这些政策与战略构想，无疑是对朝鲜半岛及东北亚地缘政策的深度解构与全面重构，所带来的冲击可以想象。
The policy and strategic ideas proposed by Yoon's team are undoubtedly a deep deconstruction and comprehensive reconstruction of the geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, and the impact they bring can be the subject of imagination.
在当前中美长期交恶可能及中美在诸多问题上的脱钩，以及全球风云变幻的情景下，朝鲜半岛的风险迅速上升，各类风险正在共振并叠加。处理好无序竞争的中美关系下的中韩关系，以及朝鲜半岛战略不稳定带来的老问题，是新的秩序重构过程中历任韩国政府的重要命题。但不容置疑的是，与过去相比，当今韩国的地缘战略地位已经发生巨大变化，成为中美竞争的重要锚点的可能越来越大，韩国在大国竞争中的承压与受到的拉扯会不断增大，无论韩国愿意与否，这已经成为韩国的地缘宿命。
Under the current scenario of possible long-standing Sino-U.S. sparring and Sino-U.S. decoupling on many issues, as well as the global uncertainties, the risks on the Korean Peninsula are rapidly rising, and various risks are resonating and superimposing. It has been the task of successive Korean administrations to handle Sino-Korean relations under the backdrop of disorderly competition between China and the United States, as well as the old problems arising from the strategic instability on the Korean Peninsula. But what is indisputable is that the geostrategic position of South Korea has changed dramatically compared to the past, and it is becoming more and more likely to become an important anchor point in the competition between China and the U.S. The push and pull on South Korea in the competition between major powers will continue to increase, and this has become South Korea's geopolitical destiny whether it wants to or not.
Zhu Zhiqun, Bucknell University
可以预计，中韩双方高层交往和经贸关系在尹锡悦任内会继续加强和深化，韩国也会继续平衡对美与对中外交。值得关注的是，尹政府在美方和韩国内部保守势力的压力下，如何调整对北对华政策而不伤害到中方的利益。另外值得关注的是，由于萨德事件和疫情等原因，目前中韩两国民间交往有限，友好关系受损，韩国甚至出现一些强烈反华情绪。尹锡悦执政后，双方政府和民间如何努力恢复和改善民间关系也是一大考验。
It can be expected that high-level contacts and economic and trade relations between China and South Korea will continue to strengthen and deepen during Yoon's tenure and that South Korea will continue to balance its diplomacy with the U.S. and China. What is worth watching is how the Yoon administration will adjust its policy toward the DPRK and China under the pressure from the United States and conservative factions within South Korea without hurting Chinese interests. Also of concern is that due to the THAAD incident and the epidemic, people-to-people contact between China and South Korea is currently limited, friendly relations have been damaged, and South Korea has even seen some strong anti-China sentiment. It will also be a big test to see how the governments and society of both sides will try to restore and improve p2p relations after Yoon takes office.
Sangman Lee, Kyungnam University
与文在寅政府相比，尹锡悦保守政府将在对外政策方面确保决策空间。尹锡悦曾称，“我只有看符合国民的利益和国家的利益从而实施对内外政策”。这意味着决策方向将从“战略模糊”转移至“战略鲜明”，韩国的声音也会越来越明确，也将加强韩美日三国之间积极的合作。其原因在于，韩国国民开始怀疑文在寅政府在对朝、对美、对华关系上优柔寡断的对外政策。
Compared to Moon’s government, Yoon's conservative government will maintain some space for decision making in foreign policy. Yoon’s said, "I can only implement internal and external policies in the interest of the people and the country.” This means that the direction of policy-making will shift from "strategic ambiguity" to "strategic clarity", and the voice of Korea will become clearer, and active cooperation between Korea, the US, and Japan will be strengthened. The reason for this is that the South Korean people are beginning to doubt the indecisive foreign policy of the Moon administration on relations with the DPRK, the U.S. and China.
虽然追求所谓的“安美经中”政策，但随着美中战略竞争的激化，“搭便车”和“战略模糊”将不再是合理的韩国对外政策，韩国应该通过自强以追求“战略鲜明”的舆论高涨。尹锡烈政府正确认识到国民的这种热情，才采取了对华强硬政策，而对日关系正常化，对美国一边倒加强同盟政策。预计尹锡悦政府偏向于美国对外政策的合作。
Although Korea pursues the so-called "peace with the U.S. and commerce with China" policy, as the strategic competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, "free-riding" and "strategic ambiguity" will no longer be a reasonable foreign policy for South Korea. Yoon adopted a policy of hardening relations with China, normalizing relations with Japan, and strengthening the alliance with the United States after correctly identifying this national sentiment. It is expected that the Yoon government favors cooperation with the U.S.
当然，经济方面来说，韩国是世界十大经济体之一，中韩全面交易量占韩国总交易量的25%。2021年，中韩贸易总额已超过8600亿美元。韩国是出口导向的国家，韩国产品和中国产品的竞争越来越激烈。特别是，在美国和中国试图重新构筑世界供应链结构的各种情况下，尹锡悦政府将通过中国主导的BRI和RCEP，以及改善与日本的关系，参与日本主导的CPTTP贸易体系， 探索韩国经济的出路。由于韩国在与中国的经济交流中占有不少份额，韩国不会积极参与美国试图用于包围中国的经济同盟，但可以积极参与价值同盟。尹锡悦政府深知，这种对华强硬政策是不符合现实的经济政策。
Of course, economically speaking, South Korea is one of the top ten economies in the world, the overall trade volume between China and South Korea accounts for 25% of the total trade volume of South Korea. In 2021, the total trade volume between China and South Korea has exceeded 860 billion dollars. Korea is an export-oriented country, and competition between Korean and Chinese products is becoming increasingly fierce. In particular, with various attempts by the U.S. and China to reconfigure the structure of the world supply chain, the Yoon administration will explore the way out for the Korean economy through the China-led BRI and RCEP, as well as improving relations with Japan and participating in the Japan-led CPTTP trading system. Since Korea has a significant share of economic exchanges with China, Korea will not actively participate in the economic alliance that the U.S. is trying to use to encircle China, but it can actively participate in the value-based alliance. The Yoon administration is well aware that such a hard-line policy toward China is infeasible in the trade realm.
Li Jiacheng, Charhar Institute
尹锡悦上台之初，中韩关系可能会有一个动荡期。经过一段时间的调整与适应，中韩关系应该会重回正轨。尹锡悦政府会在中国关切的一系列地区安全问题上持慎重立场。韩国总统大选之际，朝鲜先后试射侦察卫星、启动宁边核设施、恢复丰溪里核试验场、扩建西海卫星发射场，这一系列动作都是在蓄势待发。如果尹锡悦政府对朝采取强硬举措、恢复韩美联合军演，朝鲜可能将以超强硬手段应对，从而引发新一轮的朝核危机。
There may be a turbulent period in Sino-Korean relations at the beginning of Yoon’s tenure. After a period of adjustment and adaptation, Sino-Korean relations should get back on track. The Yoon administration will take a cautious stance on a range of regional security issues of concern to China. At the time of the South Korean presidential election, North Korea has test-fired a reconnaissance satellite, activated the Yongbyon nuclear facility, resumed the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, and expanded the West Sea satellite launch site, all in a series of moves that are foreshadows of possible future actions. If the Yoon administration takes tough measures against the DPRK and resumes joint military exercises with the U.S., the DPRK may respond with super tough measures, thus triggering a new round of nuclear crisis.
Zhu Feng, Nanjing University
尹锡悦政府如何处理中美关系需要高度关注。尹锡悦的保守派立场和竞选时毫不掩饰的亲美言论，决定了他执政后将采取强化韩美同盟与韩美经贸、高科技合作的亲美政策。问题是他执政下韩国将继日本之后又一个东亚国家在美中之间采取“战略清晰”政策、对美国“一边倒“吗？这还需要观察，我并不认为这将是必然的。
How the Yoon administration handles US-China relations needs to be closely watched. Yoon's conservative stance and unabashedly pro-U.S. rhetoric during his campaign dictate that his administration will adopt a pro-U.S. policy of strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance and Korea-U.S. economic, trade, and high-tech cooperation. The question is, under his administration, will South Korea, after Japan, be another East Asian country to adopt a "strategic clarity" policy between the U.S. and China and "turn to the side" of the U.S.? That remains to be seen, and I don't think it is inevitable.
问题是，中国如果引导和协调我们自己的对韩政策！今年是中韩建交30周年。这30年间，中韩关系几度起伏，但两国关系的内外制约因素已经发生了历史性的重大变化。然而，朝鲜半岛南北分离以及东亚区域安全对立却并没有出现本质变化。相反，随着朝鲜拥核能力的事实化以及中美战略竞争态势的加剧，东亚地区的“第三方因素”思考、掂量和再决定其外交和安全政策，是无法避免的。重要的是，中国的“硬”和“软”的影响力同样需要与时俱进。“稳住”韩国的外交与安保政策选择，需要北京不断增强中韩关系的战略沟通与协调能力。
The question is how China will steer and coordinate our own policy toward South Korea? This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea. During these 30 years, China-South Korea relations have had several ups and downs, but the internal and external constraints on relations between the two countries have changed historically and significantly. However, the separation of the North and South on the Korean Peninsula and the regional security confrontation in East Asia have not seen an essential change. On the contrary, with the de facto nuclear capability of North Korea and the intensification of the strategic competition between China and the United States, it is inevitable that the "third-party factor" in East Asia will think about, weigh, and re-determine its foreign and security policies. Importantly, China's "hard" and "soft" power needs to evolve equally with the times. "Stabilizing" South Korea's foreign and security policy options requires Beijing to continuously enhance its strategic communication and coordination capabilities in Sino-Korean relations.
当前的俄乌冲突及其“溢出效应”很可能使得东亚局势进一步复杂化。这同样是中韩两国政府与社会必须及时对话和沟通的重大事件。如何控制和减少当前俄乌冲突的“溢出效应”进一步让东亚区域形势复杂化，保障东亚区域经济与社会开放、融合与可持续增长的态势不至于出现消极逆转，这是中韩两国政府必须共同承担的责任。
The current Russia-Ukraine conflict and its "spillover effects" are likely to further complicate the situation in East Asia. This is also a major event that requires timely dialogue and communication between the governments and societies of China and South Korea. How to control and reduce the "spillover effect" of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict from further complicating the situation in East Asia, and it is a responsibility that the governments of China and South Korea must share to ensure that the trend of economic and social openness, integration, and sustainable growth in East Asia will not be negatively reversed.
Chen Shuying, University of Washington (Seattle)
尹锡悦曾提出希望与美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚组成的包围中国的QUAD联盟，进行更多合作。日本首相岸田文雄也表示，在处理朝鲜问题时，几乎所有的外交选择都是开放的，包括可能的制裁，日本将与美国和韩国就任何应对保持密切联系。这样一来，美国在亚洲两大盟友韩国、日本新一届政府都换成了对华强硬派的总统，再加上菲律宾随着总统杜特尔特的离任，原本接班人的女儿弃选菲律宾总统，也让菲律宾未来的对华政策存在变数，加上台湾岛上学法律的蔡英文，这也给了美国随时可以在中国周边煽风点火的空间，美国在亚洲的布局露出雏形，拜登政府重拾奥巴马时期的重返亚太战略现在有了更稳定的支点。
Yoon has raised hopes for more cooperation with the QUAD. Japanese PM has also said that almost all diplomatic options are open in dealing with North Korea, including possible sanctions, and that Japan will stay in close contact with the U.S. and South Korea on any response. In this way, the two major allies of the United States in Asia, South Korea, and Japan's new government have been replaced by a president who is a hardliner against China. In addition, with the upcoming departure of Duterte and the announcement from his daughter giving up his candidacy, the future of the Philippines' policy toward China there are variables. Taiwan’s Tsai also gives the United States an opening to fan the flames in the region. Should Biden revive the Obama-era policy of pivoting to Asia, he would have a more stable fulcrum.
值得中国关注的是尹锡悦会不会追加萨德系统，这是专门针对中国东风-21D和-26而来的，能监控中国东北、华北、东南沿海大部分地区，对中国的军事威胁十分巨大。当年韩国一部署萨德，中韩关系直接跌入冰点，限韩令随后公布，韩国的娱乐产业、化妆品、服装直接卖不动了。韩国对华贸易依赖达到了25%左右，对中国的贸易顺差，超过了对日本和美国的总和，如果中韩决裂，那将是地动山摇级的。
It is worth China's attention whether Yoon will expand the THAAD system, which is specifically aimed at China's Dongfeng-21D and -26, and can monitor most of China's northeast, north China and southeast coast, which is a huge military threat to China. When South Korea deployed THAAD, the relationship between China and South Korea directly fell to a freezing point, and the restriction on South Korea was subsequently announced, crippling the importation of South Korea's entertainment products, cosmetics, and clothing. South Korea's trade dependence on China has reached about 25%, and its trade surplus with China exceeds that of Japan and the U.S. combined, so if China and South Korea were to break up, it would be a ground-shaking level.
Wang Xingxing, Shanghai International Studies University
尹锡悦上台后，涉台问题立场也不排除有“超纲”的可能性。韩国内部对于加入QUAD问题、提升韩美日军事合作水平议题、追加萨德部署等问题存在争议。韩国舆论、媒体、民众的反应也会造成韩国内部的巨大分歧与混乱。这一系列的反应与影响将同时直接作用于政界。而韩国军方事实上与台岛有着千丝万缕的联系与沟通。因此，在形势的作用下，以及美国的胁迫下，加之韩国有着向中国寻求“尊重”外交的驱动下，韩国新政府即便在涉及台湾问题的“硬”介入可能性有限，“软”介入并非不可能，如在台海有事时提供情报和其它“软服务”的可能性依然不能排除。正如在俄乌军事冲突的情况下，韩国还是选择加入了对俄罗斯的制裁，而过去一段时间文在寅政府甚至与美国在联合声明中置喙台海问题，韩国军舰甚至随美国而动在南海游弋。因此，韩国新政府如何行动无疑会引人注目。
After taking office, Yoon's position on Taiwan-related issues cannot be ruled out as being "out of bounds”. There are controversies within South Korea over the issue of joining Quad, the issue of raising the level of military cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, and the additional deployment of THAAD. The reactions of Korean public opinion, media, and people will also cause great disagreement and confusion within the Korean government. This series of reactions and effects will directly affect the political circles at the same time. And the South Korean military in fact has inextricable ties and communication with the island of Taiwan. Therefore, given the situation and the U.S. coercion, and driven by South Korea's diplomacy of seeking "respect" from China, even if the new South Korean government may be restrained "hard" involvement in Taiwan, it may opt for "soft" involvement. The possibility of "soft" intervention, such as providing intelligence and other "soft services" in case of trouble in the Taiwan Strait, cannot be ruled out. As in the case of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, South Korea has chosen to join the sanctions against Russia, and the Moon administration has even touched on the Taiwan Strait issue in a joint statement with the U.S., and South Korean warships have even moved with the U.S. to cruise in the South China Sea. Therefore, how the new South Korean government acts will undoubtedly be closely watched.
Sun Taiyi, Christopher Newport University
尹锡悦的中国政策将是备受关注的。此前，文在寅政府是美国在印太地区主要盟友里唯一没有完全倒向美国的政府。因为文在寅政府深知朝核问题方面中国扮演的角色以及与中国的紧密经济联系，故文在寅政府一直试图在中美之间平衡。但至少从目前已有的信息来看，尹锡悦并不想要维系这样的平衡。当然，更紧密的追随美国并不意味着尹政府将积极反华，实际的表现形式更可能是韩国不再仰视中国，不再对中国毕恭毕敬，而是会试图平视中国与中国在重要议题上平起平坐。
Yoon’s China policy will be of great interest. Previously, the Moon administration was the only major U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific region that did not completely fall in line with the United States. The Moon administration has been trying to strike a balance between China and the U.S. because it is well aware of China's role in the North Korean nuclear issue and its close economic ties with China. But at least from the information available so far, Yoon does not want to maintain such a balance. Of course, following the U.S. more closely does not mean that the Yoon administration will be actively anti-China, but the actual manifestation is more likely to be that South Korea will no longer look up to China and treat China with respect, but will try to level with China on important issues.
总体上，他希望减少韩国对中国的依赖，也不认为中方能帮韩国解决朝核问题——也就是说让文在寅政府对华有所顾忌相对恭敬的因素，在尹锡悦看来将不复存在。所以，尹锡悦的亲美、亲日政策可能会在短期为中韩关系带来更多紧张因素，且他在朝核问题上的强硬立场，也可能导致他在面临突发危机时采取过激行为而造成负面后果。
In general, he wants to reduce South Korea's dependence on China and does not believe that China can help South Korea solve the North Korean nuclear issue - that is, the factors that made the Moon administration scrupulous and relatively respectful toward China will no longer exist in Yoon’s view. Therefore, Yoon's pro-U.S. and pro-Japan policies may bring more tension to Sino-Korean relations in the short term, and his hard-line stance on the North Korean nuclear issue may lead him to act aggressively in the face of unexpected crises, with negative consequences.
Wang Junsheng, CASS
一是进一步向美国靠拢。（1）尤其是在四国机制、五眼联盟上逐渐向美国靠拢；（2）常态化提及台湾问题、南海问题；（3）就中国人权价值观上说三道四。二是进一步加强和日本的关系，乃至进一步加强美日韩三边安全合作。韩日有可能在情报分享、海上救援训练等方面加强合作。考虑到美日已经在台湾问题上明显加强了合作，韩国是否和美日一起加强在台湾问题上的合作，值得高度关注。上述两点都是拜登政府对华战略打压的主要手段，尹锡悦如果往这个方向走，配合美国的对华战略打压，将会触及中韩关系发展的底线，将严重影响中韩关系的发展。三是会追随拜登政府的对朝政策，加大对朝施压。今年以来，朝鲜已经进行了9次导弹发射。尹锡悦对朝施压政策，必然会进一步刺激朝鲜进行导弹试射、甚至是核试验。这必然会导致半岛局势紧张，导致中国周边外交压力增大。
First, Korea will further moves closer to the United States. (1) especially on the Quad and the Five Eyes Alliance; (2) regularly mention the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue; and (3) Speak out on China's human rights values. The second is to further strengthen relations with Japan and even further strengthen trilateral security cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. It is possible that South Korea and Japan will strengthen cooperation in intelligence sharing and maritime rescue training. Considering that the U.S. and Japan have already apparently strengthened cooperation on the Taiwan issue, whether South Korea joins the U.S. and Japan in strengthening cooperation on the Taiwan issue deserves great attention. Both of the above are the main means of strategic containment of China by the Biden administration. If Yoon goes in this direction and cooperates with the U.S. strategic containment of China, it will touch the bottom line of the development of China-South Korea relations, and will seriously affect the development of China-South Korea relations. Third, it will follow the Biden administration's policy toward North Korea and increase pressure on the country. So far this year, North Korea has conducted nine missile launches. Yoon’s policy of exerting pressure on North Korea will certainly further instigate North Korea to conduct missile test launches and even nuclear tests. This will certainly lead to tensions on the peninsula and increased diplomatic pressure on China's periphery.
为了中韩关系行稳致远，需要将上述隐忧逐步消除，共同维护中韩关系的健康发展。为此，应该扩大中韩关系的积极因素，减少消极因素，同时坚持原则。
In order for China-South Korea relations to move forward, the above-mentioned concerns need to be gradually eliminated and the healthy development of China-South Korea relations should be jointly maintained. To this end, it is important to expand the positive elements and reduce the negative ones in China-South Korea relations, while adhering to the principles.
一是扩大两国经贸合作。两国在半导体产业、汽车产业、百货产业、化工产业、电子产业等还有不少合作的空间，同时，两国在第三方市场上也有很大的合作空间。二是降低韩国“反华情绪”，为此要加大媒体交流、民间交流等。三是坚持原则。在涉及台湾、南海、中国人权与价值观、以及四国机制、萨德等问题上涉及中国底线，要毫不犹豫的坚决守护。四是在朝鲜半岛核问题上，还是要坚持原则，推进朝鲜半岛无核化、维护半岛和平稳定。为此，也应该和尹锡悦政府加强合作。
First, expand economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. There is still a lot of room for cooperation between the two countries in the semiconductor industry, automobile industry, department store industry, chemical industry, electronics industry, etc. Also, there is a lot of room for cooperation between the two countries in the third-party market. Second, to reduce South Korea's "anti-China sentiment", to increase media exchanges, civil exchanges, etc. The third is to adhere to principles. When it comes to Taiwan, the South China Sea, China's human rights and values, and the Quad, THAAD, and other issues involving China's bottom line, we should not hesitate to firmly guard it. Fourth, on the nuclear issue of the Korean peninsula, it is still necessary to adhere to the principle of promoting the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula. To this end, China should also strengthen cooperation with the Yoon administration.
Jin Junda, CASS
中韩关系很大程度上取决于韩方是否抱有善意。从中国的角度来看，中国当然要尽可能争取每一个邻国。中国当前具有威慑韩国右翼分子的军事、经济工具，同时与朝鲜保持紧密伙伴关系。但中国对于运用力量保持高度克制，正是因为中国意图维持以合作为基础的中韩关系，建立“确保相互依赖”机制，维护朝鲜半岛和东北亚和平。但从近期形势来看，中国在东北亚的外交工作空间很有限，更加合适的策略是重点争取东南亚等区域的国家。因此，菲律宾选举的重要性高于韩国，当然中国在东南亚方向上的政策工具、对话渠道和外交斡旋空间都会更大，仍有从美国包围网破局的可能性。至于中国对韩政策，则应采取“又拉又打”的原则，一方面适当反击和威慑，另一方面保持克制，不轻易使用军事、经济牌。
Sino-Korean relations depend to a large extent on whether the South Korean side has goodwill. From China's point of view, it is certainly important for China to try its best to win over every one of its neighbors. China currently has the military and economic tools to deter South Korean right-wingers, while maintaining a close partnership with North Korea. But China has exercised a high degree of restraint in the use of its power precisely because it intends to maintain cooperation-based Sino-Korean relations, establish a mechanism to "ensure interdependence" and maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. However, in light of the recent situation, China's diplomatic efforts in Northeast Asia are limited, and a more appropriate strategy would be to focus on countries in Southeast Asia and other regions. Therefore, the Philippine election is more important than South Korea’s, and of course, China will have more policy tools, dialogue channels, and diplomatic mediation space in the direction of Southeast Asia, and there is still the possibility of breaking from the U.S. encirclement net. As for China's policy toward South Korea, it should appropriately deter on the one hand, while maintaining restraint and not easily using military and economic cards on the other.
而对于韩国，整个社会适应中国崛起仍需要一段时间。当前韩社会对中国国力上升普遍采取“愤怒加否认”的态度，先前冬奥会上小小的判决争议已经让人窥见整个韩国社会日渐升温的反华情绪。一个大国的崛起必然引发周围国家的担忧，中国仍需时日证明自己无意向朝鲜半岛扩张，韩国社会的情绪情有可原。但随着中国继续发展，即使强硬如尹锡悦总统，最终也将认识到与中国交好的重要性，以及反华政策的危害性。或许尹锡悦意图利用中国的克制进行政治投机，借美日压中国继续“让利”；但没有互信和政治信用的投机行为无法持续，尹政府在投机的同时也必须做好遭到还击的准备。韩国需要认识到它与日本的地缘条件不同，不可能效仿上世纪五十年代的日本成为“冷战枢纽”。
As for South Korea, it will take some time for the whole society to adapt to China's rise. At present, Korean society generally adopts an attitude of "anger and denial" towards the rise of China's power, and the small controversy over the verdict at the previous Winter Olympics has given a glimpse of the rising anti-Chinese sentiment in Korean society as a whole. The rise of a great power inevitably raises concerns in surrounding countries, and it will take time for China to prove that it has no intention of expanding into the Korean peninsula, so South Korean society is justifiably emotional. But as China continues to grow, even a hard-line president like Yoon will eventually realize the importance of befriending China and the dangers of anti-China policies. Perhaps Yoon intends to use China's restraint for political speculation, using the U.S. and Japan to pressure China to continue "concessions," but speculation without mutual trust and political credibility are unsustainable, and the Yoon administration must be prepared for blowback as it speculates. South Korea needs to realize that it is not in the same geopolitical condition as Japan and cannot follow the example of Japan in the 1950s to become a "Cold War hub”.
This newsletter is written by Yang Liu, founder of Beijing Channel.
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Very interesting. Thank you.