The Russian-Ukrainian conflict: views from Beijing
On the latest development over the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Beijing’s comments have been measured, calling for peaceful dialogue and a political solution.
Apart from official statements by diplomats home and abroad, several Chinese scholars have commented on the ongoing crisis. This newsletter will offer a translation of recent public comments that reflect how mainstream Chinese scholars view the conflict. On top of that, former editor in chief of Global Times Hu Xijin also offered his take on Weibo, which your host will also include in this newsletter.
For China’s official position on the Ukrainian crisis, see here for the full MFA press conference readout. In short:
China is closely monitoring the evolving situation in Ukraine. China’s position on the Ukraine issue is consistent. The legitimate security concerns of any country should be respected, and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be jointly upheld. What has happened on the Ukraine issue has much to do with the long delay in the effective implementation of the Minsk-2 agreement. China will continue to engage all parties based on the merits of the matter itself. The situation in Ukraine is getting worse. China once again calls on all parties to exercise restraint, appreciate the importance of implementing the principle of indivisible security, and de-escalate the situation and resolve differences through dialogue and negotiation.
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崔洪建，中国国际问题研究院欧洲所所长
Cui Hongjian, Director, the Department for European Studies, CIIS
The following is part of his interview for Wechat account 补壹刀， an affiliation of Global Times.
Q: There are some who are linking the Ukrainian issue with the Taiwan issue, what’s your opinion?
A: This association is extremely wrong. The Taiwan issue is fundamentally different from the Ukraine issue. The Taiwan issue is China’s internal affairs, and in terms of sovereignty Taiwan has always been part of China, and this situation is not comparable to eastern Ukraine or even to Crimea. I have noticed that there are two groups of people who are trying to sway public opinion. One group is from the West, who seek forward the concept of “separation of sovereignty“ by underscoring the status quo that the mainland and Taiwan are under separate governance. In doing so, the group is trying to label China as the party changing the status quo.
这种关联极其错误，台湾问题跟乌克兰问题有本质上的不同。台湾是中国内政，在主权上台湾始终是中国的一部分，这种情况与乌克兰东部甚至克里米亚都没有可比性。我注意到现在有两拨人在这个问题上带节奏，一部分来自西方，他们将乌克兰问题联系台湾问题，试图用所谓大陆与台湾的“分治”状态来论证“主权分离”，给中国扣上“改变现状”的帽子；
The other group comes from within China, who view Russia's approach to the Ukraine issue as a sort of "model" for the future resolution of the Taiwan issue and advocates for closer imitation of Russia. The negative impact of these two groups is the same, that is, they blur the essential differences between the two issues. In the end, the issue of eastern Ukraine is a geopolitical issue within the context of great power interactions, which is fundamentally different from the issue of Taiwan, which is an internal affair of China.
另一部分来自国内，将俄罗斯对待乌克兰问题的策略看做未来解决台湾问题的某种“榜样”，鼓动中国更多学习和模仿俄罗斯。这两个方向产生的负面影响是一致的，即模糊了这两个问题的本质不同。说到底，乌克兰东部问题，就是大国博弈中的地缘政治问题，与作为中国内政的台湾问题存在本质区别。
Q: What impact will the Ukraine crisis have on the power order of the world?
A: It is still necessary to insist on opposing war, calling for peace, and promoting talks. In response to the current situation, we definitely hope that all parties will exercise restraint, and at the utmost importance, not to fall into war, especially between the Ukrainian government forces and the armed forces in Eastern Ukraine. Secondly, we hope that Russia and Ukraine can solve the problem face to face. Thirdly, we hope that all parties, especially the United States, NATO, and Europe, will not add further complications to the situation and leave room for the Russian and Ukrainian sides to solve the problem. Excessive military mobilization and sanctions tactics can undermine diplomatic efforts.
还是要坚持反对战争、劝和促谈。针对目前的状况，我们肯定是希望各方克制，首先是不要陷入战乱，尤其是乌克兰政府军和东部武装力量之间。其次是希望俄乌双方可以面对面地解决问题。第三，希望各方尤其是美国、北约和欧洲，不要再增加局势的复杂因素，给俄乌双方解决问题留出空间。过度的军事调动和制裁手段都会损害外交努力。
Q: Will there be a direct military conflict between the United States, NATO, and Russia?
A: The United States and Europe need to get on the same page, and the next phase response will primarily shift to sanctions and military deterrence. There is no doubt that the United States and Europe are highly united in their position over the status of Eastern Ukraine. However, they still need to reach a consensus on whether Russia's recognition of the "independence" of the two regions is an "aggression" against Ukraine. Previous U.S. and European sanctions are prepared on the premise of Russia's "military invasion" of Ukraine therefore the two sides will need to agree on the strength and scope of sanctions and other issues. There is little room left for diplomatic maneuvers based on the Minsk-2 agreement, and the U.S.-EU response based on deterrence can no longer maintain a balance. The U.S. will call for strengthening deterrence, but the EU is reluctant.
美欧双方现在需要再次对表，接下来的应对方式将主要转向制裁+军事威慑。在对乌克兰东部地位的认定上，美欧毫无疑问是高度一致的。但对于俄承认两区“独立”是否属于对乌“侵略”还需要达成共识，因为此前美欧的制裁准备都是以俄对乌“军事入侵”为前提的，同时在制裁力度和范围等问题上双方也需要达成一致。先前以新明斯克协议为基础的外交斡旋空间所剩无几，美欧以威慑加外交为主的应对已经无法保持平衡，美国会强调加强威慑，尽管这对欧盟来说仍然不太情愿。
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李海东，外交学院教授
Li Haidong, Professor, China Foreign Affairs University
The following is part of his interview for Wechat account 补壹刀， an affiliation of Global Times.
Q: What impact will the Ukraine crisis have on the power order of the world?
A: At least in the next few years, the United States will have no choice but to put its main focus on Europe. The United States has been talking about engaging in great power strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, but it did not expect that the real theater for the intense strategic competition is in Europe, rather than the Indo-Pacific. If the United States renews its push to strengthen the Indo-Pacific strategy at this time, it would mean that the United States will again find itself in the debacle the U.S. military was in when it retreated from Afghanistan last year. I think the U.S. policy elite should have a sound judgment on this, and not make any elementary mistakes.
至少在接下来的近几年，美国将不得不把主要精力将放到欧洲。美国一直说要在所谓印太地区搞大国战略竞争，但是没想到，真正激烈的战略竞争舞台是在欧洲而不在印太。如果这个时候美国再强化印太战略，那就意味着美国必然将再次面临去年美军在阿富汗大溃败式的结局，我想美国的政策精英对此应该有正常的判断力，而不会糊涂地犯更低级的错误。
If the return of the European security paradigm to its historical pattern is irreversible, conflict and adversarial relationships will again become the norm here, and it would certainly be a tragedy. The elites dealing with international affairs of the parties directly involved, with their superior wisdom and experience, should effectively take responsibility and work for real and lasting peace in Europe.
二战结束以后欧洲安全格局回归历史的趋势如果是不可逆的，敌对、冲突将在该地区成为常态，这无疑是个悲剧。直接相关方处理国际事务的精英智慧超群，经验丰富，应该切实负起责任，为欧洲真正持久和平而努力。
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Wang Fan, Vice President, China Foreign Affairs University
The following is a part of his essay published by the Global Times on Feb.18.
乌克兰危机是美国刻意制造出来的。乌克兰危机本身就是美国的另一个筹码。美国不会在意乌克兰的感受。筹码就是筹码，是随时可弃的。危急时刻，泽连斯基请拜登访乌，拜登断然拒绝。如果乌克兰没有危机，俄罗斯如何被制衡，北约又如何更进一步实现凝聚，“北溪-2”如何被叫停？可以肯定的是，美国还会在乌克兰制造一系列不稳定事件，“俄罗斯入侵乌克兰”只是美国设计的俄罗斯威胁乌克兰安全的一种说辞，还会有其他关于乌克兰危机的版本，比如俄罗斯会策动俄版对乌克兰的“颜色革命”，这类消息已经不胫而走。
The crisis in Ukraine was deliberately created by the United States. The Ukrainian crisis itself is another bargaining chip for the United States. The United States does not care about the feelings of Ukraine. A bargaining chip is a bargaining chip, and it can be discarded at any time. At the moment of crisis, Zelensky had asked Biden to visit Ukraine, and Biden flatly refused. (From the U.S. perspective) If there is no crisis in Ukraine, how can Russia be checked and balanced? How can NATO further achieve cohesion? How can Nord Stream-2 be called off? It is certain that the United States will create a series of destabilizing events in Ukraine, and the "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is only rhetoric designed by the United States to underscore Russia’s threat to the security of Ukraine. There could be other similar rhetoric, such as Russia will instigate a “color revolution“ against Ukraine. Such rumors have already been spreading.
第三，乌克兰危机不是一个孤立的俄乌两国关系事件，而将带来“小乌”见“大乌”的效果。乌克兰危机不是俄乌危机，而是美俄关系危机。而且，乌克兰危机具有连锁反应，牵一发动全身，很可能带来欧亚大陆地缘政治乱局和变局，有可能形成新的全球力量组合，同时在疫情仍在肆虐的背景下带给欧洲经济及至世界经济雪上加霜的后果。
The crisis in Ukraine is not restrained within the context of the Russia-Ukraine relationship. The crisis in Ukraine is not just a crisis between Russia and Ukraine, but a crisis in U.S.-Russian relations. Moreover, the crisis in Ukraine can potentially set off a chain reaction, which is likely to bring about geopolitical chaos and changes in the Eurasian continent and may lead to a reshuffling of global powers. In the context of the Covid pandemic, the crisis may also bring dire consequences for the European economy and the world economy.
第四，美国将继续在危机中渔利。乌克兰危机是美国渔利的机遇和手段，它将在自己导演的这起远离美国本土的危机事件中坐收渔人之利。美国付出很少而所获可能甚丰。区区几千在北约军事人员的重新布防，利用宣传工具制造舆论攻势，就造成欧洲大陆可能大乱的效果。美国显然有把握控制好这一危机，不致引火烧身。
The United States will continue to profit from the crisis. The crisis in Ukraine, which is directed by the United States and takes place far from its shores, is an opportunity and a tool for the U.S. to reap the benefits. The United States can achieve much in gain at little cost. The United States can possibly create possible chaos on the European continent just by repositioning a few thousand NATO military personnel and deploying propaganda assets to launch a media offensive. The United States is clearly confident that this crisis will be contained so as to not inflict any harm on itself.
即使乌克兰真的战火四起，也烧不到美国。何况美国在姿态上还做足负责任大国的形象。另外，美国不仅希望欧洲乱，也希望印太乱。让别国在乱中失措，乱而无序，美国才有机会扮演“救世主”的形象。由此可见，欧亚大陆生战生乱，正是美国所期待的。欧亚大陆越乱，美国就越能浑水摸鱼。从这个角度来看，从欧洲大乱到欧洲之治殊非易事。
Even if war does break out in Ukraine, the United States will be spared. Moreover, the United States will also posture itself as a responsible power. Furthermore, the United States does not only want to throw Europe into chaos, it wants the same for the Indo-Pacific. Only by letting other countries descend into chaos and disorder, can the United States present itself as a "savior". Therefore, a Eurasian continent consumed by war is exactly what the United States pursues. The more chaotic Eurasia is, the more benefit the United States can extract. From this point of view, it is not easy to go from chaos to order in Europe.
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胡锡进， 《环球时报》特约评论员
Hu Xijin, Former Editor in Chief of the Global Times, special commentator
The following is a comment by Hu published on his Weibo.
美国现在很强调维护乌克兰的国家主权和领土完整，但是我想请中国人清醒，华盛顿是决不会以同样态度支持中国的国家主权和领土完整的。他们会把台湾当乌克兰，而不会把台湾当成顿涅茨克。他们会继续在新疆香港问题上侵蚀中国的国家主权。台湾今天就很兴奋，宣扬它就是“乌克兰”，拒绝把自己套成“顿涅茨克”。
The United States is now putting a lot of emphasis on preserving Ukraine's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but I would like to ask the Chinese to remain clear-eyed to the fact that Washington will never support China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity with the same attitude. They (The United States) will treat Taiwan as Ukraine, not as Donetsk. They will continue to erode China's national sovereignty on the issue of Hong Kong in Xinjiang. Taiwan is acting excited today, proclaiming that it is "Ukraine" and refusing to consider itself as "Donetsk".
中国已是世界性力量，看看今天俄乌美英法各国使馆都在中国社交媒体上争相发帖宣扬他们各自围绕乌克兰危机的主张，就知道中国举足轻重的份量了。这种时候，中国如何表态，以及采取什么对策，必须以中国的国家利益为基础，不仅聚焦当下，也要放眼长远。
China is already a global power, and the importance of China is evident from the fact that today the Russian, Ukrainian, U.S., British and French embassies are competing on Chinese social media to post their respective claims around the Ukraine crisis. At a time like this, China's stance and response must be based on its national interests, focusing not only on the present but also on the long term.
现在舆论汹涌，美国和西方的声音很强，公理和他们选择性的双标使用混杂在一起。这考验中国外交的定力和智慧，也考验普通中国人在复杂信息中保持清醒和独立思考的能力。
The United States and the West have a strong voice, which mixes axioms and their selective use of double standards. This tests the strength and wisdom of Chinese diplomacy, as well as the ability of ordinary Chinese to stay awake and think independently amidst a complex information environment.
必须看清，这是美国与俄罗斯围绕北约东扩的摊牌，而不仅仅是俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的恩恩怨怨，乌克兰实际成为了美国咄咄逼人政策和俄罗斯与其角力的牺牲品。
It is important to see that this is a showdown between the U.S. and Russia around NATO's eastward expansion, not just a feud between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has in fact become a victim of aggressive U.S. policy and the Ukrainian struggle with Russia.
我们主张国家主权和领土完整，但这需是以中国国家利益为中心的外交实践，而不能被美国这样的流氓机会主义地用来设置针对我们的陷阱。让我们支持中国专业的外交团队驾驭当前复杂局面，维持应有的平衡，同时警惕别有用心者帮着美国花言巧语带节奏。
We stand for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but this needs to be a diplomatic practice centered on China's national interests rather than a premise on which a rogue opportunist like the United States can set a trap for us. Let us support China's professional diplomatic team in navigating the current complex situation and maintaining the balance while being wary of those with ulterior motives helping the U.S. sway public opinion.
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This newsletter is written by Yang Liu, founder of Beijing Channel.
Please write to yangliuxh@gmail.com if you have any feedback or suggestions of any particular topic to be featured in future Beijing Channel newsletters.
Disclaimer: translation in this newsletter is done by deepl.com, with editing by your host. It should only serve as a reference, NOT as an official translation of the original text.